Marco Rubio, formerly a senator and a man of reason, once pushed through a law in the US Congress obliging any president wishing to withdraw from NATO to secure the support of at least two-thirds of the Senate. Suffice to say, that is not about to happen.
Nevertheless, the US president is stepping up his blunt attacks on the transatlantic agreement that the United States itself sought in 1949, on the grounds that Europeans are refusing to be drawn into the war he is currently losing in the Middle East.
This is nothing new. He does not like alliances or allies, especially those who have established peace in their own countries that runs counter to military adventures, alongside a culture of dialogue and respect for human rights.
We cannot therefore count on him to come to the aid of a European state under attack. We knew Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty—which normally mandates such action—was fragile, but at least the possibility served as a deterrent. There is now no ambiguity:
Trump’s America will not come to Europe’s aid.
Worse still, it is highly likely that he will dismantle NATO just as he is currently decapitating his own army. Putin’s most improbable dream has thus been fulfilled.
Europeans must therefore organise themselves, and they have not wasted any time in doing so. They have thus replaced the United States in providing aid to Ukraine.
They must now go further and officially acknowledge that the defence of Europe depends first and foremost on their resolve. Article 42 of the Treaty on European Union does indeed establish a mutual defence clause, but it is limited to the Union.
Without affecting NATO, they could, through a treaty, an agreement or a declaration, assume collective defence of the continent and organise de facto solidarity amongst themselves in the event of aggression or provocation. The United Kingdom, Norway, Canada and a few others might join them.
This would clearly signal Europe’s determination to take charge of the continent’s defence without relying on others. It would also compel Europeans to organise themselves faster in the face of a growing Russian threat and an America that is, at best, unpredictable.
